The world will need to produce 11.2 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) by 2050, or 20 times 2021 output, to meet growing demand from automakers and energy storage applications, new data from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI) shows.
By that time, the bulk of demand would come from energy storage applications, accounting for about two-thirds of the battery market.
In the nearer term, 2.9 million tonnes of LCE will be needed by 2032, more than the 2.7 million tonnes of cumulative global lithium output between 2015 and 2022, according to Benchmark’s Lithium Forecast.
According to the critical metals analyst, the data highlights the challenge of scaling up lithium production from new mining projects, which can take over five years to bring online.
“The long-term path for lithium is set, yet the supply chain scaling challenge has just begun,” says BMI CEO Simon Moores in a statement.
“This data shows that we are at just the beginning of a generational challenge, not one that’s going to be solved in the 2020s.”
By 2040, all of the lithium mined last year will only meet one month’s demand, even with the supply from recycled batteries.
BMI’s analysis highlights the emergence of lithium recycling as an increasingly important piece of the supply puzzle. Without recycling, the world will need 234 new lithium mines by 2050 to meet this staggering demand. BMI currently tracks just 40 mines which produced lithium this year.
Benchmark forecasts that in 2040, nearly 20% of lithium chemicals will be produced from recycled batteries or process scrap.
Leading up to 2050, many countries will transition their fleets to EVs. This has been the primary driver of growth in recent years. In 2015, EVs represented just 39% of battery demand, increasing to 79% this year, as assessed by Benchmark’s Lithium-ion Battery Database.
Meanwhile, The Northern Miner’s sister publication, MINING.com, reports BMI’s latest price assessment shows lithium prices in China hit an all-time high on Wednesday as battery manufacturers scramble to secure supply amid booming demand from the electric car market.
According to the battery supply chain researcher and pricing agency, Chinese battery grade lithium carbonate rose by 1.7% in the past week to reach an all-time high of US$74,475 a tonne, more than doubling in 2022.
